Is the Economic Recovery Already Underway?

The _Wall Street Journal_ just released their latest monthly _Survey of Economists_. In an [article](https://www.wsj.com/articles/wsj-survey-u-s-recovery-from-pandemic-shock-to-begin-by-third-quarter-11591884001) on the findings, they reported: > _“The U.S. economy will be in recovery by the third quarter of this year, economists said in a survey that also concluded the labor market will fare better than previously expected following the effects of the coronavirus pandemic.”_ Clearly, the latest [jobs report](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm) from the _U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics_ confirmed the labor market is outperforming expectations, as it revealed that 2.5 million jobs were added. Directly before the release, experts forecasted that we would _lose over 8 million jobs_. A second revelation indicating the economy is already about to turn around was also somewhat unexpected. More than 9 out of 10 economists surveyed believe the recovery has already begun this quarter or will begin in the third quarter. Here are the results of the survey question asking when the recovery will begin:[](https://i0.wp.com/cherylbowerrealestate.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/20200617-MEM-ENG-1.jpg?ssl=1)The survey also asked what type of recovery the economists expect. More than 8 out of 10 believe it will be a form of a ‘V’ recovery: - A true ‘V’ with a sharp drop and a sharp rebound - A ‘Nike Swoosh’ with a sharp drop and a more gradual recovery, coined after the company’s logo Some experts, possibly concerned about a second wave of COVID-19, call for a ‘W’ recovery – a double dip recession. Others call for a ‘U’ with a prolonged bottom. A very small percentage project the dreaded ‘L’ recovery, which is no recovery at all for the foreseeable future (think of the Great Recession). Here’s the breakdown:[](https://i0.wp.com/cherylbowerrealestate.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/20200617-MEM-ENG-2.jpg?ssl=1) ### **Bottom Line** Though we still have a long and difficult journey ahead, it appears the worst for both the economy and the unemployment situation may be in our rearview mirror. Posted in [For Buyers](https://cherylbowerrealestate.com/category/for-buyers/), [For Sellers](https://cherylbowerrealestate.com/category/for-sellers/)